Habib Omoniyi Balogun

Lithium ignited a global scramble. The real contest spans supply chains, new chemistries, water, and policy. Here’s what wins—and what breaks—next. ‎ Primary keywords: lithium supply chain, EV batteries, direct lithium extraction (DLE), sodium-ion batteries, critical minerals policy, EU Critical Raw Materials Act, IRA EV tax credit ‎Secondary keywords: Atacama Desert water, recycling, geopolitical risk, battery metals, refining dominance, lithium triangle, Africa lithium policy. ‎Executive Summary ‎ ‎Lithium didn’t just power a revolution in electric vehicles—it rewired global politics, industrial strategy, and environmental science. Yet the “lithium wars” are only the opening move. The decisive fronts now are (1) midstream refining and cathode/anode manufacturing (where China holds outsized influence), (2) water-constrained brine basins and the science of sustainable extraction, (3) aggressive policy regimes in the U.S. and EU that reward “friendly” supply chains, (4) fast-moving chemistry shifts (LFP, sodium-ion, solid-state) that could rebalance demand, and (5) recycling and circularity that cap long-run raw-ore dependence. ‎ ‎What follows is a compact field guide—geopolitics plus environmental science, with data, case studies, and takeaways you can act on whether you’re an investor, policymaker, operator, or just lithium-curious.