Why Coalitions Form in Nigeria
1. Electoral Mathematics
Nigeria’s population is vast and diverse. Winning national elections requires broad, cross-regional appeal. Coalitions help merge voter bases across states, ethnic lines, and religious divides, giving parties a fighting chance in a country with 36 states and 774 local government areas.
2. Power Rotation Agreements
Informal pacts often encourage power to shift between the North and the South. Coalitions can serve as vehicles for honoring — or exploiting — these expectations.
3. Political Survival
Smaller parties rarely win national elections alone. By merging or forming alliances, they gain bargaining power and a seat at the table.
4. Shared Opposition to the Incumbent
The most powerful coalitions often arise not from shared visions but shared enemies. Removing an incumbent becomes the glue, even when members have little else in common.
The Economic Impacts — Positive and Negative
Coalitions may seem purely political, but they have profound effects on Nigeria’s economy.
1. Policy Stability or Instability
Positive: Broad coalitions can bring more voices into policy-making, potentially creating more balanced economic reforms.
Negative: Ideological mismatches within coalitions often result in compromise policies that are unclear, inconsistent, or abandoned midstream. This breeds investor uncertainty.
2. Market Confidence
Political unity — even if temporary — can send signals of stability, encouraging foreign investment. Conversely, when coalitions collapse, political crises often follow, and markets react sharply.
3. Resource Allocation
Coalitions often involve power-sharing deals that determine which regions get more infrastructure, industry, or federal appointments. While this can reduce regional inequality, it can also lead to wasteful spending driven by political promises, not economic logic.
4. Reform Execution
Big reforms — fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, anti-corruption drives — require broad political backing. Without coalition support, reforms face resistance from the opposition. Yet coalitions may also water down bold reforms to protect their own political interests.
The Dark Side of Coalitions
While coalitions can be democratic tools for inclusion, in Nigeria they often turn into:
Short-term marriages of convenience that collapse after elections.
Platforms for elite bargaining, with little attention to the people’s needs.
Vehicles for patronage, where political loyalty is rewarded over competence.
This short-termism harms economic planning. Infrastructure projects stall, fiscal reforms are abandoned, and policies change direction with every political fallout.
Historical Examples
The 2013 APC Merger — The coming together of ACN, CPC, ANPP, a faction of APGA, and the nPDP was one of the most significant political coalitions in Nigerian history. It reshaped the political landscape, ended PDP’s 16-year rule, and set new precedents for national alliances. Economically, the coalition’s rise was met with optimism, but policy disagreements later slowed reforms.
National Unity Governments — At times of national crisis, Nigeria has seen coalition-style cabinets aimed at promoting stability. While these moments can unite the country, they often end once political ambitions take over.
Looking Forward: Can Coalitions Work for the People?
For coalitions to truly benefit Nigeria’s economy, they must shift from election-winning tools to governance-strengthening partnerships. This means:
Drafting clear, written coalition agreements with policy priorities.
Committing to economic agendas beyond election cycles.
Practicing inclusive governance that values expertise over ethnicity or patronage.
Nigeria’s diversity is its strength. If political coalitions can reflect that diversity in action — not just in campaign posters — they can be more than instruments of power. They can become engines of sustainable growth.
Final Word:
In Nigeria, politics will always be a dance of alliances, rivalries, and reconciliations. But when coalition politics serves the economy as much as it serves the ballot box, the nation moves closer to its promise. Until then, the challenge remains: turning political marriages of convenience into true partnerships for progress.
Nigeria’s diversity is its strength. If political coalitions can reflect that diversity in action — not just in campaign posters — they can be more than instruments of power. They can become engines of sustainable growth.
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